This theoretical limit comes out to a profit of +0.504 bets/shoe.
So I calculated the average profit per shoe, assuming heads-up play with the dealer. I could tell from the graph that the bet was exploitable. Here’s what it looks like with one deck remaining: I’d see how often and how strongly the bet went +EV.
This would show me if there was any potential for a counting scheme. I first looked at the bet’s distributions of EVs at the last hand of the shoe. The last time I hit it, I decided to analyze it’s countability. I always play this bet for $1, and get really excited when I hit it for $75. Using a simple true K-Q count, the bet yields an average 5.4% player edge. Normally, the house edge is 4.06% for this side bet, but as readers of this blog know by now, sucker bets are often countable. My local Barona Casino offers the Royal Match blackjack side bet which pays 75-to-1 when you’re dealt a suited K-Q on your first two cards, and 2-1 for any other suited hand.
